FOXBORO — Heading into the last weekend of the NFL season, there is still a lot to be decided. When it comes to the New England Patriots and their 2024 draft pick, there are a number of different scenarios that fans can spend the next several days getting to know. Just brace yourself for a massive popsicle headache come Sunday. Thanks to a loss to the Bills in Week 17 and a shocking Cardinals win over the Eagles, the 4-12 Patriots are currently holding the No. 3 pick in April’s draft. The 4-12 Washington Commanders are just ahead of the Patriots due to the Strength of Schedule tiebreaker (.515 to New England’s .518, according to Tankathon ). The 4-12 Cardinals are behind both of those teams at the moment at .562, with three 5-win teams — the Giants, the Chargers, and the Titans, respectively — all within striking distance. All of that could change by the time the regular season comes to an end. It could change a lot, too. Here is what we do know about New England’s future pick: -They won’t miraculously land the No. 1 pick, which the Panthers clinched (for the Chicago Bears) on Sunday. -The Pats will win the Strength of Schedule battle (which as a reminder, is the first tiebreaker when it comes to the draft order) with the Cardinals no matter what happens throughout the league on Sunday. – The Patriots have a shot to end up with the No. 2 pick, but they could also fall to the No. 7 pick. Buckle up, folks. The difference between picking No. 2 or No. 3,and picking after No. 3 is pretty massive. The No. 2 pick would give New England a chance to draft whichever quarterback doesn’t go first overall, which will likely be either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Picking at No. 3 would give the Pats a shot to potentially take LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels or Ohio State star receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., should the board play out as many mockers are predicting. If the Patriots land somewhere after the third pick… get ready to learn about a new offensive lineman. The Patriots would be assured a top-three pick if they simply lose to the Jets on Sunday. Losing to the Jets — a team that the Patriots haven’t lost to since 2015 — is a tough pill to swallow, but fans of the tank are at peace with that possibility. But Bill Belichick has no interest in tanking — especially against the Jets. And Patriots players have no interest in tanking, to the Jets or anyone. That much has been clear as the defense continues to play its butt off while receiving little help from the New England offense. So don’t expect this group to just lay down to improve the draft pick for a team they may not even be a part of come next season. The Commanders are playing the Cowboys, who are looking to improve their footing in the NFC playoff picture. Chances are Washington will not be ending its seven-game skid on the final Sunday of the season. (Washington hasn’t won since beating the Patriots in Foxboro two months ago.) A Pats win and a Commanders loss would obviously give Washington the No. 2 pick, and make things very interesting for New England. If the Patriots and the Commanders both lose and finish with the same record, New England could still win the Strength of Schedule battle, but they’d need help. Strength of Schedule is based on the combined winning percentage of all opponents on a team’s schedule, so the Pats will need all the teams they’ve played this season to lose to help their cause. If it comes down to the Patriots and the Commanders, there are five games that will factor into where those teams will pick: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Saturday, 4:30pm) Houston at Indianapolis (Saturday, 8:15pm) Atlanta at New Orleans (Sunday, 1pm) Denver at Las Vegas (Sunday, 4:25pm) Chicago at. Green Bay (Sunday, 4:25pm) The big one in that group is the Falcons-Saints game. The Commanders played (and beat) the Falcons earlier this year, while the Patriots played (and lost to) the Saints. A Falcons win on Sunday would lower New England’s SOS while boosting Washington’s. Just an Atlanta win could mathematically lift the Patriots over the Commanders. In the other games, the Patriots need the Packers (Washington played the Bears), Raiders, Steelers, and Colts to all lose. If the Patriots lose, the Saints lose, and two of the other scenarios play out in their favor, New England would have the No. 2 pick. As for those 5-11 teams lurking in the distance, the Patriots currently have a decent Strength of Schedule edge over the Chargers (who host the Chiefs at 4:25pm) and the Titans (who host the Jaguars at 1pm), but that could change come Sunday. That wouldn’t matter, of course, if the Patriots lose to the Jets. The Giants, however, are a major threat to overtake the Patriots, should New England beat the Jets. New York’s other team is hosting Philadelphia in the late window, with the struggling Eagles battling for the NFC East crown. If the Patriots win and the Commanders, Cardinals, and Giants all lose, New England is likely looking at the fifth pick. Of course there are a lot of other unknowns with the Patriots at the moment. Mainly, who will be making the selection, and who will be coaching them up in 2024. But for now, we’ll focus on the team’s upcoming draft pick. That could still end well for New England, or it could end in disappointment. It all sounds a lot like the last 17 weeks for Patriots fans. Matt Geagan Matthew Geagan is a sports writer and producer for CBS Boston and wbz.com. He has been part of the WBZ sports team for nearly 20 years.
